Tuesday, July 29, 2003

The AP reports that the Pentagon wants to let you bet on possible acts of terrorism.

Last year I wrote about a betting pool on when Mike Tyson would bite someone again, based on the Delphic Oracle described by John Brunner. The Pentagon scheme strikes me as a more perverse version of the Oracle. And more open to abuse.

Let's say someone, oh, for arguments' sake a retired Pentagon consultant, decides he wants to make a bit of money. He and a bunch of buddies place a large number of bets on one specific futures item, say the assasination of Yassir Arafat. They then contract with someone or a group of someones to actually do the assasination (they, of course, would not involve any of the shadowy US agencies, now would they?). Make a big enough bet and everyone comes out ahead, even after "expenses".

Brunner's Shockwave Rider gets more and more prescient as time goes by. Which is Not A Good Thing.

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